Avenue Vine

The study of the UK wine and spirits markets for 2005, with forecasts to 2010*, is part of a global research project commissioned by VINEXPO, the world’s biggest wine and spirits fair, held in Bordeaux, France, from June 17-121. The research was conducted by leading drinks researchers IWSR in 28 wine producing countries and 114 wine and spirits consuming markets.

The growth in UK retail value is a long term trend explained both by rises in the amount of wine drunk and by the higher average price of a bottle of wine in the UK of £3.11p - more than in most European countries.

Annual average wine consumption is forecast to grow at 3.7% in the ten years from 2001 to 2010 – three and a half times faster than the growth in world consumption.

However, British wine drinkers will still drink less wine in total in 2010 than the world’s top four: France, Italy, the USA and Germany; the UK will be in fifth place. In 2005 British wine drinkers consumed nearly 1.7 billion bottles of grape wine. This was equivalent to nearly 27 litres per person of legal drinking age a year, roughly the same as Australia (28.3 litres) or Holland (28.6 litres) but a long way behind Denmark (38.3 litres) or Germany (36.6)
This rate of growth will slow in the run up to 2010 when Vinexpo forecasts that wine consumption will reach 28.5 litres per head, equivalent to 38 bottles a year or 3.2 bottles a month – less than five glasses a week.

British wine drinkers are also opting to pay more. Sales of bottles priced at more than £2.90p accounted for nearly half of volume in 2005, a rise of 40% since 2001, while bottles priced at less than £2.90p grew at only 12%.

Red wine accounted for just over half of all wine drunk in 2005 (nearly 53%) with consumption increasing by more than 35% between 2001 and 2005. Rosé wine, however, showed very rapid growth of more than 63% in the same period and consumption of rosé is forecast to rise by 25% by 2010.

The research also reveals that Australia has overtaken France as the UK’s number one wine supplier. Between 2001 and 2005 the volume of French imports fell by 7.58% while imports of Australian wines rose by 51.7% to put it in leadership position. At the same time imports of wine from the USA more than doubled while imports from South Africa rose by more than 50%.

As far as spirits are concerned, Scotch Whisky is still the UK’s biggest selling spirit, though each year sales are declining. Between 2001 and 2005 sales fell by 6.7%
(7.339 million cases in 2005) and are forecast to fall a further 10% by 2010. Nonetheless, the UK remains the fourth largest market in the world for whisky sales by volume.

Vodka, meanwhile is rapidly gaining on Scotch and will overtake it by 2010. Volume sales are rising at an average of more than 5.5% annually and by 2010 are forecast to reach 8.405 million cases.

World data from VINEXPO/IWSR at a glance:

• World consumption of wine reached 30.4 billion bottles in 2005 and will grow to 31.8 billion by 2010
• World wine sales at rsp reached nearly $107 billion in 2005 and are forecast to climb to $117 billion by 2010.
• The USA will become the world’s biggest wine consumer by 2010, overtaking Italy and France
• The USA is the world’s biggest market for wine sales at $19.7 billion dollars in 2005. Sales are forecast to reach $22.75 billion by 2010
• China was tenth biggest wine consumer in 2005 and will move up to ninth position by 2010
• The Russian Federation will become eighth biggest consumer by 2010
• Red wine accounts for more than half of world wine consumption and will grow to more than 15 billion bottles by 2010
• Rosé wine will see continued growth but white wines will be almost static
• Wine consumption will grow in most markets but by 2010 will decline in the present leading wine consuming countries of France, Switzerland, Portugal, Argentina and Spain
• World consumption of spirits is growing at nearly 1.4% a year
• Asia accounted for nearly 47% of all spirits consumed in the world
• Total sales of spirits worldwide should reach more than $180 billion by 2010
• Sales of gin are falling while rum, scotch and tequila are growing
• China will become the second largest market for cognac in the world by 2010 with the UK in third position. The USA is the world’s largest cognac market;.

The research entitled ‘10th global study of current trends in the International Wine and Spirits Market and Outlook to 2010’, shows that global wine production reached 278.300 million hectolitres in 2005 and is forecast to rise to 287.000 hectolitres by 2010. World consumption in 2005 was 227.881 million hectolitres; forecast to rise to 238.825 million hectolitres by 2010.

Source: “UK POISED TO BE EUROPE'S BIGGEST WINE SPENDER,” Eugene Bacot, Colin Lewis and Peter Ward, Response Source, London – January 14, 2007